The soaring prices of fertilizers have had a negative impact on rice cultivation in Asia.

According to the summary of commodity price trends compiled by the World Bank on May 4th, the international price of representative urea fertilizer reached $857 per ton in April, surpassing the four-year high of $726 set in March and increasing by 2.2 times compared to the same period last year. 
Urea is a type of nitrogen fertilizer, mainly used to promote the growth of plant leaves and stems. Its production raw material is natural gas. 30% to 35% of the global urea export volume is concentrated in Gulf countries such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Due to the retaliatory attacks by Iran that damaged production facilities, coupled with the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer transportation has almost come to a standstill. Moreover, sulfur, which is required in the production of phosphate fertilizer to increase the flowering and fruiting rate, is also highly dependent on the regions in the Gulf. 
The price index reflecting the overall trend of fertilizers (with 2010 as 100) reached 208.7 in April. Since before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran in February, this index has soared by 64 points. The World Bank predicts that the annual fertilizer prices will increase by 31% compared to the previous year in 2026. Among them, the price of urea fertilizer, which is highly dependent on the Middle East, is expected to increase by 1.6 times throughout the year.

The most worrying aspect is the staple food for Asians - rice. Rice, like corn, is a high-input crop, and nitrogen fertilizer is particularly crucial for increasing yield. 
Davit Mekonen, a senior economist at the World Bank, analyzed and pointed out: "Asia is highly vulnerable to fluctuations in the supply of fertilizers from the Middle East. If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists beyond the middle of the year, many countries will face a shortage of supplies." 
As the rainy season approaches, Southeast Asia and South Asia are entering the rice transplanting season. The local main crops are long-grain varieties that thrive in high temperatures and high humidity (such as indica rice and jasmine rice), which are different from the japonica rice in Japan. Such long-grain varieties account for approximately 90% of the global rice trade. Although the progress varies from place to place, most areas in India, Vietnam, Thailand, and other countries will start sowing and transplanting after May. This means that the peak period for fertilization coincides with the peak of fertilizer prices. 
The chief economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Maximiliano Torreiro, stated: "From Pakistan to the Mekong River Basin, production plans have already been adjusted in various regions. Vietnam, the world's second-largest rice exporter, is currently reducing its production, and Thailand and Pakistan are also facing the same pressure of reduced output." 
As the world's largest producer and exporter of rice (with an annual output of 150 million tons), India also has a fatal weakness in its reliance on imported fertilizers. Due to the Indian government's preference for prioritizing domestic supply, during the period from 2023 to 2024, it even issued a rice export ban due to concerns over potential production cuts. 
At present, in the international market, no country can replace India in providing large-scale supply. Compared with wheat and corn, the international trade volume of rice is already limited. The annual export volume of countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan remains at around 5 to 8 million tons. 
For countries like the Philippines that heavily rely on imported rice, as well as regions in sub-Saharan Africa, the longer the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the more strained the supply and demand of fertilizers will become, and the higher the risk of a global food crisis will be.