The global nitrogen fertilizer market is experiencing uneven conditions.

As July approached, the global fertilizer market showed a differentiated trend. Among them, the price of urea rose against the trend due to the demand from Europe and the United States. The Egyptian off-shore price reached as high as $448 per ton. The price of ammonium sulfate remained in a weak and fluctuating state. The differences in supply patterns, demand structures and policy environments are pushing the two major nitrogen fertilizer varieties onto completely different price tracks. 
Since July, the international urea market has witnessed a round of bottom-feeding rebound. In several regions, there has been a new round of short-selling replenishment by traders and new import demands have emerged. 
The European market has become the core driving force behind this round of urea price increase. The demand in several European markets has continued to grow, pushing up the prices of large-grain urea trade. The off-shore price in Egypt reached as high as $448 per ton, while that in Algeria reached $471 per ton. The Brazilian market was the focus of attention this week. At the beginning of the week, trading was sluggish and the market was weak, with the landed price dropping to around $410 per ton at one point. But after Thursday, the price rebounded and reached as high as $430 per ton. 
However, the strength of the urea market is not universal. After the bidding on June 8th, the Indian National Fertilizer Company Limited (NFL) has issued 1.7 million tons of urea purchase intentions. The final transaction prices are $444.90 per ton for the East Coast CIF price and $449.30 per ton for the West Coast CIF price. This price is much lower than the historical peak at the beginning of the year, reflecting that the international urea market is still in the re-balance stage after falling from the peak of geopolitical conflicts. 
In sharp contrast to the stable urea market, the ammonium sulfate market continues to face pressure. The bulk price of Chinese aromatic acid grade ammonium sulfate has dropped from $170 to $180 per ton last week to $157 to $165 per ton, a decrease of $13 to $15 per ton in a single week. The price of granular aromatic acid in the northwest Europe has slightly risen to $342.5 to $388.5 per ton, further widening the price gap between Europe and Asia. 
Longzhong Information pointed out that the downward trend of the ammonium sulfate market that had persisted in the middle and upper parts of July finally came to a halt. Previously, since the beginning of June, the continuous decline in the international urea price continued, and the Brazilian buyers' acceptance of the ammonium sulfate quotations was relatively low. The overseas quotations continued to retreat, and the export sales were significantly hindered. The international export price pressure has become a regular phenomenon, and the pressure from the terminal receiving parties' price cuts led to the continuous decline of domestic raw material prices.

The market trends of urea and ammonium sulfate are diverging. The root cause lies in the structural differences between the two. From the supply side, the urea production capacity in China remains at a high level of 90.45%, with a daily output of 21.58 million tons. The high supply has suppressed domestic prices, while the orderly release of export quotas has provided a bottom support for international prices. In the case of ammonium sulfate, the main product of caprolactam has seen a decline in production capacity to 70.42% due to poor profits, and supply has decreased. However, the supply contraction has not led to a stabilization in prices; the weak export demand has offset the positive impact from the supply side. From the demand side, there is a continuous import demand for urea in the European market, driving up the prices in major export destinations such as Egypt and Algeria. For ammonium sulfate, major buyers in Brazil are facing a situation of competitive bidding for lower prices. From the policy side, China implements quota management for urea exports, and the orderly release of exports avoids large-scale impacts on international prices. For ammonium sulfate, it faces a more complex policy environment. The CIQ inspection is about to be implemented, and the market has already strengthened port inspection efforts due to the report that "container urea was wrongly reported as ammonium sulfate". 
A Goldman Sachs research report indicates that the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately one-third of the global trade volume of fertilizers. With the resumption of transportation in June and the demand remaining in the off-season, the price of urea in the US Gulf NOLA has dropped from the peak of the conflict to the range of approximately $350 to $400. However, the upcoming third-quarter purchasing season is approaching, and the new round of supply risks remains the focus of market attention. 
Overall, the global fertilizer market is gradually returning to the logic of fundamental pricing from the stage driven by geopolitical conflicts, which was characterized by high volatility. However, the road to this return is not smooth. European demand has supported the price of urea to remain resilient against the trend, while ammonium sulfate has struggled to bottom out amid export price pressure and policy disturbances. The two types of nitrogen fertilizers and their different price trends reflect the complex reconfiguration of the global fertilizer supply chain in the post-conflict era.